A Couple of Tough Weeks For Hedge Funds
Hedge Funds have experienced some of their worst performance ever over the last couple weeks. Our best estimate of March performance has the industry down roughly 3%, with most of that loss being booked in the last week.
Is The U.S. Economy in a Recession?
Published by Bruce McNevin on Nov 27, 2023 With conflicting macroeconomic indicators and diverging expert opinions, we reviewed the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) recession indicators to determine if the economy is in a recession. They suggest that the answer is no, not yet. Figure 1 contains our ‘recession barometer’ which compares the most recent monthly […]
The Outlook 2024: Stronger for Longer
Despite prognostications and market pricing of a near certain recession at the start of 2023, the US economy not only avoided a downturn, it thrived…
1Q 2024 Unlimited Hedge Fund Barometer
Hedge Fund performance in the first quarter was the best in more than 3 years, driven by an unusual combination of…
The Best Skill or the Most Luck?
One of the hardest things to do in investment management is figure out if outcomes are a function of luck or skill…
Far From Perfect: Inverted Yield Curves Don’t Reliably Predict Recessions or the Direction of the Markets
On October 25, 2022 the yield curve flipped to inverted and has remained so for the nearly 500 days since…
Who Is Better: Hedge Fund Allocators or Dart-Throwing Monkeys?
Every hedge fund allocator dreams of finding the portfolio of managers that reliably outperforms…
What’s Under the Hood? What Matters for ETF Liquidity
Understanding the liquidity of an individual stock, bond, or futures contract is…
Improving the Odds With Diversification
Alpha strategies are intended to provide a differentiated return stream from stocks and bonds…
Not All-in on US Mega Cap Stocks? That’s Prudent, But Currently Underperforming
US stocks outperformance of pretty much everything returned again in 2023…